üzerinden
LinkedIn
The US energy shock is no longer just a headline story: it is starting to leak into core inflation.
September CPI (BLS, 14 Oct): +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y, up from 3.4%. Energy jumped 5.2% in a month and gasoline alone (+9.1%) explains over half of the rise. The worrying part is core: +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y, both above consensus, with shelter up 0.4% m/m. When fuel costs pass into transport and services, they stop being "transitory".
The Fed already hiked in September to 3.75–4.00%. With core PCE, its actual target, at 3.0% in August, it cannot look through this. Market pricing for another hike at the 27–28 Oct FOMC has risen (~37–39% per Reuters). Higher for longer is back.
For emerging markets, Romania included, that means a firmer dollar and higher global yields: a more expensive backdrop for financing deficits.
https://lnkd.in/ei2sRU-y
September CPI (BLS, 14 Oct): +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y, up from 3.4%. Energy jumped 5.2% in a month and gasoline alone (+9.1%) explains over half of the rise. The worrying part is core: +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y, both above consensus, with shelter up 0.4% m/m. When fuel costs pass into transport and services, they stop being "transitory".
The Fed already hiked in September to 3.75–4.00%. With core PCE, its actual target, at 3.0% in August, it cannot look through this. Market pricing for another hike at the 27–28 Oct FOMC has risen (~37–39% per Reuters). Higher for longer is back.
For emerging markets, Romania included, that means a firmer dollar and higher global yields: a more expensive backdrop for financing deficits.
https://lnkd.in/ei2sRU-y
