🔮 How good are we at predicting the economy?
In 2024, the European Commission expected the eurozone in 2026 to look pretty healthy:
GDP growth: +1.6%
Inflation: 1.9%
One year later, in 2025, expectations were already weaker:
GDP growth: +1.2%
Inflation: 1.9%
And now, in 2026?
The ECB's latest baseline:
GDP growth: +0.8%
Inflation: 3.0%
So in two years we went from expecting stronger growth + inflation basically solved… to half the expected growth and inflation back at 3%. 📉
The interesting part isn't that economists were "wrong". The world changed: trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts and another energy shock changed the inputs.
Economic forecasts are useful snapshots of what we know today — not photos of the future.
Sources / what they actually predicted:
2024 → European Commission, Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast
2025 → European Commission, Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast
2026 → ECB, June 2026 Eurosystem projections
In 2024, the European Commission expected the eurozone in 2026 to look pretty healthy:
GDP growth: +1.6%
Inflation: 1.9%
One year later, in 2025, expectations were already weaker:
GDP growth: +1.2%
Inflation: 1.9%
And now, in 2026?
The ECB's latest baseline:
GDP growth: +0.8%
Inflation: 3.0%
So in two years we went from expecting stronger growth + inflation basically solved… to half the expected growth and inflation back at 3%. 📉
The interesting part isn't that economists were "wrong". The world changed: trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts and another energy shock changed the inputs.
Economic forecasts are useful snapshots of what we know today — not photos of the future.
Sources / what they actually predicted:
2024 → European Commission, Autumn 2024 Economic Forecast
2025 → European Commission, Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast
2026 → ECB, June 2026 Eurosystem projections
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