Everyone is trying to figure out what the next asset that will make them rich is. AI stocks, crypto, private markets, the next huge IPO or some company that could 10x. But while everyone is arguing about where the money will go next, the businesses built around all this speculation are already making serious money.
Global investment banking revenue reached $61.4 billion in the first half of 2026, up 24% year over year. And when you think about it, the business model is pretty interesting. Markets go up, people move money. Markets crash, people panic and move money. A big company goes public, banks get paid. Two companies merge, banks get paid. Investors abandon one trend and rush into another, and somewhere in that process someone is collecting a fee.
As an investor, you need to be right about the future. You need to pick the right company, enter at the right price and, ideally, know when to get out. The infrastructure around investing doesn't necessarily have the same problem. In many cases, it just needs people to keep participating.
It reminds me of the old gold rush idea, but I think people often take the wrong lesson from it. It's not simply “sell shovels.” It's about identifying where money is forced to pass through when everyone is chasing the same opportunity.
We spend a lot of time asking what the next NVIDIA will be. Maybe an equally interesting question is: who gets paid while millions of investors are trying to find it?
Sometimes you don't need to predict the winner. You need to understand the flow of money around everyone trying to predict the winner.
Global investment banking revenue reached $61.4 billion in the first half of 2026, up 24% year over year. And when you think about it, the business model is pretty interesting. Markets go up, people move money. Markets crash, people panic and move money. A big company goes public, banks get paid. Two companies merge, banks get paid. Investors abandon one trend and rush into another, and somewhere in that process someone is collecting a fee.
As an investor, you need to be right about the future. You need to pick the right company, enter at the right price and, ideally, know when to get out. The infrastructure around investing doesn't necessarily have the same problem. In many cases, it just needs people to keep participating.
It reminds me of the old gold rush idea, but I think people often take the wrong lesson from it. It's not simply “sell shovels.” It's about identifying where money is forced to pass through when everyone is chasing the same opportunity.
We spend a lot of time asking what the next NVIDIA will be. Maybe an equally interesting question is: who gets paid while millions of investors are trying to find it?
Sometimes you don't need to predict the winner. You need to understand the flow of money around everyone trying to predict the winner.
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